The recent appointment of Marco Rubio as the U.S. Secretary of State marks a new chapter in the diplomatic relations between the United States and Vietnam. Initiating his tenure with a telephone conversation with Vietnam’s Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister, Bui Thanh Son, Rubio underscored the importance of both nations addressing critical issues, particularly regarding trade and regional security dynamics, especially with respect to China.
This call represented more than just a routine engagement; it was a celebration of the 30-year milestone in U.S.-Vietnam relations. Since formal diplomatic ties were established, the nations have made significant strides in cooperation, evolving their relationship into a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership in 2023. Yet, as both parties commended past achievements, the conversation also revealed pressing challenges that could define their future interactions.
One of the focal points of Rubio’s discussion was the trade imbalances that have come to characterize U.S.-Vietnam economic relations. In the first eleven months of 2024, the United States experienced a staggering trade deficit of over $110 billion with Vietnam. Analysts indicate that this growing economic disparity poses risks for Vietnam, which is heavily reliant on exports to the U.S. market. The dramatic appreciation of the U.S. dollar against the Vietnamese dong exacerbates the situation, amplifying concerns about potential tariffs from the Biden administration.
Vietnam’s status as a critical security partner for the U.S. complicates these economic tensions. While both nations benefit from deepening security cooperation, such as joint efforts in the Asia-Pacific region, the climb in trade deficits could lead to friction. The consequences of prolonged trade imbalances may force Vietnam into a precarious position, particularly given the previous administration’s allegations against Vietnam and other nations for currency manipulation.
Beyond the economics of their partnership, the discourse also delved into broader geopolitical concerns, particularly regarding China’s assertive actions in the South China Sea. With China’s increasing military presence and territorial claims in this vital shipping route, both Vietnam and the United States recognize the need for a united front against these aggressions. The alignment of interests between Washington and Hanoi in this geopolitical arena is a testament to their evolving relationship, as both nations seek to bolster their defense strategies and secure maritime freedom.
However, this pivot towards a more robust partnership against shared adversaries also necessitates cautious diplomacy. The U.S. must balance its firm stance against Chinese expansionism while carefully considering Vietnam’s own diplomatic ties with Beijing, which remain significant.
As Secretary of State, Marco Rubio faces the daunting task of maintaining delicate balances between reinforcing economic ties, addressing the trade deficit, and collaborating on regional security issues. Vietnam stands as a significant player in U.S. foreign policy in Southeast Asia, and the prospects for a fruitful partnership look promising yet require careful management. As both nations navigate these complexities, continued dialogue and a focus on mutual interests will be pivotal in shaping a resilient and dynamic bilateral relationship.